Bonds to Stocks
May 02, 2025
When the stock market is in trouble, capital shifts from stocks to government bonds, looking for safety. However, there are rare occasions when government bonds are in trouble, and capital flight is from bonds to stocks, so the opposite of the traditional move. Since this type of exchange for safety is rare, how does one move forward with the confidence required to invest during such events? Historically, when a government defaults on its debt, corporate bonds, stocks and commodities survive because a crisis involving government bonds causes capital to shift to the private sector.
The opportunity of a lifetime is uncommon. It will also mean that the majority will miss this opportunity. Panics to the downside are the norm for stocks, but in this case, it is a panic to the upside after a stock market correction low, so the complete opposite is the source of the confusion. This cyclical event is produced historically once a century .and it is very confusing for those who do not understand the trend.
When the bond market is turned upside down, it leads to capital flight to stocks, and this is the essential lesson of the opportunity of the century.
Thanks to Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics for making this historical observation of how capital moves in a crisis.